You can see the circuit here http://www.potemkin.org/uploads/Pid/
arduino_rs232_v2.png
Pullup on /reset?
I can't pull up the link you gave, so I haven't seen the schematic.
I've checked and the fuses are programmed correctly (there are about 1500 usb boards that we sold with the same fuse settings)
CKOPT programmed? (xtal or resonator)