You can see the circuit here http://www.potemkin.org/uploads/Pid/arduino_rs232_v2.png
Ok, the URL didn't wrap properly.
10k pullup on reset is maybe a problem, maybe not. 1K would be better, and I'd advise a small cap from reset to ground, maybe 0.1uF
The xtal caps are a bit small unless the xtal is rated for about 12pF load.
Check CKOPT fuse and make sure you are programming it.