Digital BW, The Print

The issue is a simple one.

For any technology to be sustainabkle it must offer development potential in 
any or all of the following areas.

It must continue to offer1: lower costs 2: better quality 3: greater variety 
for the end user.

Film and silver based emulsions are old technology with little or no 
development potential in any or all of those areas.

Digital photographic technology is at the begining of it's development stage 
and will surely offer considerable potential in the above.

On that basis conventional darkroom technology will become less and less 
used and as a rsult manufacturers will reduce and continue to reduce their 
production and research  facilities into new and better and cheaper ways of 
producing the raw material of the photographer until eventually only very 
small specialist production units will exist.

Because of the loss of economies of scale the conventional technology will 
become more and more expensive - so much so that market demand will continue 
to be reduced to an ever dwindling level. and eventually it will reach it's 
own sustainable demand potential, but how long that will take - who knows? 
for sure it will be a fraction of the demand for new technology.

Who will wish to invest their business capital in a shrinking manufacturing 
industry whose narket is reducing on a continuous basis.?  Not many if 
eventually any.

Now add to that terrible tale of woe the continuing reduction in interest 
from young would-be professionals in the photographic user market who will 
not wish to spend the time necessary in learning the technique and craft 
involved in these old technology methods.

Will the trade schools still teach them (how many builders still learn to 
make bricks from mud and straw I ask?)

Ask yourself if you were starting out, how would you spend your training 
time? What sort of an organisation would you like to work for. Where will 
your long term future belong? Will it be working for some doddery old sod 
living in the past, using outdated and unrepairable equipment long past it's 
useful life with no likely future developments and raw materials costing 
more every year.

Come now, forget the old codgers and their soon to be redundant skills and 
get on the new technology bandwaggon where long term employment is more 
likely.

There will remain a few, a very few, specialist producers for those willing 
to pay the necessary for "something different" - not better you will note, 
and they may get by on the income front, but the market will not support 
many of them, in complete contrast to the digital worls which, because it is 
a growth potential will support many, many more.

Lets all get real here my merrie men and do remember the Winston S Churchill 
adage that goes - "those who attempt to chain their present to the past will 
ultimately destroy their own future".

I rest my case and head south to the tea pot for some of that old technology 
that will surely never die.

Richard

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Tom OConnell" <tomoc@...>
To: <DigitalBlackandWhiteThePrint@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, August 21, 2005 6:47 PM
Subject: [Digital BW] Re: John Sexton's comment on B&W print



> -----------
> Um, that's simply not true. Not all change is good, and while there
> are definitely events that represent real progress according to
strictly


Scott-

You are right. Technology does go down some dead end roads from time
to time. But the move to digital is much more than an affair with
SciFi and possible new solutions.

I repeat my query: How many recent improvements can one find in the
wet darkroom world vs. the almost daily refinements in the digital
world? From where I sit and watch, the digital progress is
overwhelming and the days film manufacturing are numbered. It would
be nice to think both would exist side by side, but economic reality
will eventually bring a halt to the world of film. Probably the only
thing keeping it alive today is the hope that the millions of film
cameras (mostly in closets) will get pulled out for pictures of the
cousin's wedding or christening...but eventually this will stop. Who
knows exactly what will end it... remember a couple of years ago,
there was a product written about (don't know if it actually was ever
produced) that was a digital "insert" to the film bay of conventional
cameras...kind of like the cassette insert for iPods <g>. Such a
product could end film manufacture overnight if it really worked
well. I haven't seen one, but doesn't Leica now have a digital back
for it's rangefinder and SLR cameras?


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