Apple Logic Pro /LogicExpress Discussion

from NY Times :

From the Desk of David Pogue: When Apple Hit Bottom
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As you probably know, Apple's been in the news quite a bit
lately. (That's "lately," as in, "pretty much every other
month for the last five years.")

Nowadays, Apple is a media darling. The critics like the
company's direction, and so does Wall Street.

But it wasn't always so. This summer marked the tenth
anniversary of Apple's lowest point-a time in 1996 when the
company's profits and products were hitting bottom. (Steve
Jobs's return to the company he founded was still a year
away.)

Not only was Apple NOT a media darling, it was the dog the
media loved to kick. The analysts and columnists were
amazingly confident that Apple would not live out the year,
let alone the decade.

With a little help from the Lexis-Nexis database of all
articles from all major publications, it's my pleasure to
present, for your nostalgia pleasure, some of their
predictions from ten years ago:

* Fortune, 2/19/1996: "By the time you read this story, the
quirky cult company...will end its wild ride as an
independent enterprise."

* Time Magazine, 2/5/96: "One day Apple was a major
technology company with assets to make any self respecting
techno-conglomerate salivate. The next day Apple was a
chaotic mess without a strategic vision and certainly no
future."

* BusinessWeek, 10/16/95: "Having underforecast demand, the
company has a $1 billion-plus order backlog...The only
alternative: to merge with a company with the marketing and
financial clout to help Apple survive the switch to a
software-based company. The most likely candidate, many
think, is IBM Corp."

* A Forrester Research analyst, 1/25/96 (quoted in, of all
places, The New York Times): "Whether they stand alone or are
acquired, Apple as we know it is cooked. It's so classic.
It's so sad."

* Nathan Myhrvold (Microsoft's chief technology officer,
6/97: "The NeXT purchase is too little too late. Apple is
already dead."

* Wired, "101 Ways to Save Apple," 6/97: "1. Admit it. You're
out of the hardware game."

* BusinessWeek, 2/5/96: "There was so much magic in Apple
Computer in the early '80s that it is hard to believe that it
may fade away. Apple went from hip to has-been in just 19
years."

* Fortune, 2/19/1996: "Apple's erratic performance has given
it the reputation on Wall Street of a stock a long-term
investor would probably avoid."

* The Economist, 2/23/95: "Apple could hang on for years,
gamely trying to slow the decline, but few expect it to make
such a mistake. Instead it seems to have two options. The
first is to break itself up, selling the hardware side. The
second is to sell the company outright."

* The Financial Times, 7/11/97: "Apple no longer plays a
leading role in the $200 billion personal computer industry.
'The idea that they're going to go back to the past to hit a
big home run...is delusional,' says Dave Winer, a software
developer."

Now, obviously, all of these commentators were wildly,
hilariously, embarrassingly wrong. (Unless, of course, the
iPod is in fact a mass delusion.)

This is why, when anyone asks me what the future of
technology holds, or what kids will be bringing to school in
2016, I politely decline to answer.

In the end, this story really isn't about Apple-or any one
company; they all have ups and downs. This story is about the
journalists and commentators. It's one thing to report what's
happening to a flailing company, and quite another to
announce what's *going* to happen. In the technology
business, that's a fool's game.


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