I too would love to have more strange modules and am looking forward to
speculated additions to the 500 series.
But, I understand the economics that are at work here.
I sincerely hope that the zeroscillator is a smashing success. At some
point I may buy one or even several. But the present SynthTech business
model requires that a certain minimum number of any given module be sold in
order to be a success. The fewer modules of a given type that are going to
sell the higher the price point must be. Look at what Buchla modules cost!
And $650 is not cheap for an oscillator, even one this interesting. I would
remind everyone that there have been complaints in the past about prices.
In order to be financially successful with small numbers requires that
certain business functions must work on a small scale.
Just to give you some of my experience from working with Paul:
We can pack solder into 200 baggies at a lower per unit cost than 20. Why?
Because solder is cheaper in larger quantities, but also because we have a
certain process we use which minimizes labor, but requires some setup time.
So labor is also cheaper per unit with larger quantities.
The same applies to putting resistors in baggies. The more resistors for
any one kit done at a given time lowers the cost.
The same applies to every aspect of putting together the kits. The more
kits put together at a given time, the lower the cost per kit.
And then there is also the amortization of the design and prototyping
expense to consider. How much time and effort goes into getting a kit into
production? The design of the circuit must be done, breadboarded, tested,
prototyped, beta tested, etc. The PCB must be designed, the panel must be
designed. Parts must be spec'ed and purchased. The manual must be written.
The website must be revised. How much is Paul's time worth?
The bottom line is that when Paul talks about making a certain kit, and the
enthusiasm and preorders fail to reach a certain level, that kit may not get
built, or it may not get built for a long time. The demand could be said to
be below the threshold required to generate the trigger for putting a module
into production.
The threshold could be set lower, but then the selling price would have to
be higher.
I personally believe that the threshold can be lowered somewhat by improving
the process for manufacturing panels. This is why I have chosen to pursue
that direction.
But even if the threshold is lowered, that still doesn't mean the demand is
there. I remember a poll taken on this group not too long ago. The most
requested modules were things like the VCEG, not the cloud generator.
If the members of this group want the new modules, go online and order a 520
or a 450 or even a 600. I'd sure like to get mine sooner rather than later
or not at all. And I have ordered mine long ago. I'd like to see that
threshold crossed.
I could name any number of ideas for strange modules. But what if only 20
are likely to be sold? What if the demand is only 10 or 15? Is there a
viable way to design and manufacture modules or kits that can be profitable
with sales that low?
Possibly, but the price must be high enough to justify the effort.
So I'll pose this question to the group: How many of you would pay $650 for
a cloud generator? I probably wouldn't. How many would pay $1000? I
definitely wouldn't. How about $400?
How many will pay $650 for the zeroscillator? I might. I haven't decided
yet. I'd really like to have 4, but not at $2400. If they were $350 each I
would have placed the order by now.
If you're not sure you can sell enough of a certain module, strange or not,
to make a reasonable profit, you're not going to sell it at all.