[Fwd: Re: [Homebrew_PCBs] Re: 500 buck PCB mill/drill revisited]
2005-11-07 by Alan King
> > >Hi Dave, > >I do not apologize for my questions or comments about his >offerings. He has posted in other groups product anouncements that >I refered to. > > >"Yeah - except Ballendo isn't offering anything yet. There haven't been >any product announcements from Ballendo in this group, just proposals >for what a product might be." > > Offer for a future product, seems just as valid to question it as it is to offer it.. Also it is some work, but relatively easy, to come up with prices and parts etc to get a basic idea for what to offer like this. Guess it will be 10 times harder than expected to actually get everything needed in hand and together and shipping out the door. Be pleasantly surprised if it's only 8 times harder than initially expected.. The only successful small business people I know are stressed out, anal hot-hotheads. Why? Because you become one. If you need say 20 parts, expect 4-5 of them to come from large concerns where your orders are so tiny they don't care. You have to be their motivation and watchdog, they'd rather not have your money and couldn't care less about your order. Amazing amount of problems and hangups within a business, from other people simply not caring one bit if your crap makes it out the door or not.. And of course, they'll be the only place you can get the item at any reasonable price.. Plus all the stuff from below, that I just saved as a draft earlier. Gotta think long and hard about getting into a business for something like this that is such low margin. 50% of item price being profit is very low margin, a few hangups and your buffer is gone and you're losing money after doing the work. I wouldn't consider starting a small business without 80-90% profit as a start, that way you have a reasonable chance to succeed, even if there are minor problems that cut the actual profit profit to 50% or 25% for a short while. Negative cash flow will stop you in an instant, very difficult to be doing a lot of work for long, and paying to do the work too. It isn't good to know that McDonald's is a better job than your own business..
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-------- Original Message -------- lcdpublishing wrote: >Well, let's see here. You are asking a group of people to commit to >purchasing a machine based on a description that would barely >describe a piece of paper. > >If you actually wanted to sell something, why not provide some >tangible information and photos... > > > Well, there was some in depth talk about it on the list at the time. But, lets do some simple general business thinking through it so far.. 35 'very interested' people. Hmm what does that translate into? Likely 3 to 7 sales by year end, I'd guess lower side on that too. Maybe another 3-7 within another 6 months from that 35. Could be a bit higher, could be lots lower. Expect 40-60% of even 'very interested' people to never buy. $500ish is a decent chunk of change, many will have bills etc and never end up buying. Some will see it as 1/2 of larger unit, and decide to go up. Others would see it as more than they need still, and roll their own or get something very light duty at less cost. Out of the blue list has about a 1-2 % return, a 'very interested people' list probably has 10 times that, for 10-20 %.. Could get even more from outside the list. But expecting even 20 sales from a list of 35 is probably very overly optimistic.. I didn't even follow it too much, I'm definitely in the sway of make my own. If I did spend $500ish, it would be to get much more substantial hardware at a bargain, and put in my own CNC. Not saying a product in the $500 range couldn't work, but with low end being $200 and substantial hardware being only around $1000-1500, I'd bet it's a hard sell. Minimum people won't want $500, and whole hog people won't care about the extra to get to $1000+ so much. Even with very good bang to the buck, it will simply be hard to attract a market. Heck sometimes you see really good hardware in the $500+ range. And bet your behind, if you get a market going, someone from the same companies you're buying it from will start selling your package for $300. Internal to Asia deals are generally better than outside deals. I have my own unit, and tons of motors etc like 500-1000 on hand, and looked at making some. Within only another revision or two, it would probably even be ok for isolation milling. But the market is small, even with some profit headroom at only $250, in total it would probably not be worth the effort, so I found some other things to do. "That machine is not going to happen. Please remove me from your list, as I am not interested in waiting anymore. 10-4" Hmm guess that makes it 34 to start maybe.. Even at the time a year ago, things seemed to be a bit overly optimistic to me. 35 names in a hat is a way way different thing than actually getting 35 $500 checks in hand.. Not that 35 sales can't be made, just don't expect them from the list. Expect to go out and have to make them happen, taking quite a bit more work. Alan