Guys
I spent my life in the semiconductor industry and what
you are talking about is "yield" i.e. the number of
"good" chips on a wafer vs the number of bad. So 25%
means that only one of four is good. This is a
terrible yield figure and one that a normal
semiconductor process would sort out over a time frame
of a year (or maybe two at worst) If the market leader
i.e. Canon is still getting only 25% after over three
years of producing full frame chips, this bodes no
good for the industry. The industry depends on an
exponential growth in yield so as to be able to reduce
price over a fairly short term in order to drive the
market (after all, how many of us can afford $7999 for
a digital camera?)
Where Nikon is going with this is anyone's best guess
(and as a Nikon shooter I truly hope they will have a
competetive full frame sensor product soon!) but they
have to have a path to serious cost reduction over a
realistic time frame or they will have to stay where
they are.
If there is anything that bodes well it is the price
of the new full frame sensor Canon EOS 5D. If they
have gotten the yield to the point where they can sell
this body for $3999, then we should be optimistic.
Just wish I had made the jump to Canon before I had
this level of investment in Nikon glass.
Oh well, back to my Leicas and Mamiya 7ll.
Woody Spedden
--- Paul Aparycki <tawow@...> wrote:
---------------------------------
>At one point Nikon had said they were 'committed' to
the smaller sensor
size. I don't know if that's changed.
>It will be interesting to see the comparisons between
the new Canon and the
Nikon D2x since they both have the same pixel count.
>Tom Baker
They are . . . and they aren't (I could run for
president, couldn't I?).
They have been working for a very long time on a full
frame sensor but just
can't get it to click vis-a-vis manufacturing and
price point. The D2X is in
serious trouble . . . a potentially large market, the
working pro of which I
is (great eengleesh, no?), does not appreciate the
life long promise we have
had from Canon, but more importantly Nikon, of the
"continuation" of their
system.
I think Canon had a lot of really big testicles when
it dumped it's FD
system years ago . . . it was a huge gamble on their
part, but they had done
a vast "test" marketing prior to the move (the A
series cameras were not
much more than a way to feel out the idea of
electronic cameras . . . the T
series just firming up their ideas) . . . they leapt .
. . a few jumped
ship, but their new evolution worked very well. Nikon
on the other hand was
commited to it's life long promise of
"non-obsalescence", a SEMI-promise
they keep to this day. However, their dedication to
their never-ending lens
mount doesn't hold, especially in the mind of those
who have invested a
large sum of money into some esoteric, extreme,
exotic, really, really,
sharp and wonderful, but now maybe obselete? lenses.
As I remarked, Canon's success with producing full
frame chips is about 25
per cent . . . their rate of success with 1.6 chips is
the same as Nikon,
about 70 per cent. If Nikon comes up with a higher
"productivity" (which is
what I suspect their loooooooooong delay is all about)
they will take back a
lot of the market from Canon. They ARE working on a
full frame camera (now
that the Kodak joke is defunct they especially need
another "flagship"),
when it arrives is another issue . . . tomorrow?, next
week? next year???
As an aside, but pertinent to this, for years I shot
with Nikon gear . . . I
eventually made a switch to Canon, not because of what
the pixel counters on
this list hiding in the bathroom with their newest
computer rags think, I
went because of SERVICE, something a working
professional needs . . .
something that Nikon with it's smug attitude (and a
YELLOW film manufacturer
that I can think of) seemed to neglect . . . ooooh, we
are gods, worship our
product. I eventually returned to Nikon, but in the
process ended up with a
lot of Canon gear floating about . . . the upshot? I
have both systems . . .
my biggest problem? They don't focus the same way . .
. not pixel BS, not
MTF curves BS, not autofocus speed BS, but a simple
real life problem . . .
Paul Aparycki
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